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Sharply Cheaper After Jobs data Beat

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM -13.0 & XM -9.5) are sharply cheaper after the June employment report prints much stronger than expected at +39.3k jobs (versus expectations of +15k) and an unemployment rate of 3.5% (versus 3.6% expectations and 3.6% prior). At the time of writing, YMU3 is 8bp lower after the data release.

  • Cash ACGBs are 3-7bp cheaper after the data with the 3/10 curve 3bp flatter and the AU-US 10-year yield differential +3bp at +20bp.
  • Swap rates are 9-13bp higher on the day, 5-8bp higher after the data.
  • The bills strip bear steepens with pricing -7 to -13.
  • RBA dated OIS pricing shifts 4-8bp firmer across meetings after the data. A 55% chance of a 25bp hike is now priced for August versus 40% before the data.
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