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Sheinbaum Already Working on Pemex Debt Maturities

MEXICO
  • There are no data releases in the calendar today, with attention this week on Wednesday's unemployment and trade data for February. Friday’s activity and mid-month CPI data were mixed, with activity falling sharply in January, but service inflation remaining sticky in the first half of March. Following the weaker-than-expected activity data, JP Morgan revised down their Q1 GDP growth forecast to -0.5%ar from 3%, bringing their full-year growth estimate to 1.9% y/y from 2.3%.
  • On inflation, JPM note some temporary seasonal impact from the shifting of the Easter holiday, which pushed up airfares. However, they also note that non-tourism services prices jumped 0.6%m/m, demonstrating the stickiness of core inflation. HSBC also highlight the higher-than-expected core inflation, but remain confident that the temporary pressures will fade and reverse in April and that the disinflationary process will then continue. For now, both JPM and HSBC expect Banxico to continue with a 25bp rate cut in May.
  • In other news, leading presidential candidate Claudia Sheinbaum said she’s already working on the 2025 debt maturities of Pemex. Sheinbaum said there are ways to solve the financial situation of Pemex and that her goal is to keep oil production at around 1.8 million barrels per day.

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