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ILS: Shekel Underperforms All EMEA Peers, Ceasefire Deal Remains In Focus

ILS
EM BulletBulletEmerging Market NewsMiddle East

Spot USD/ILS has crept higher and last deals +119 pips at 3.6243, with bulls looking for a rally towards Dec 30 high of 3.7064. On the flip side, bears keep an eye on Dec 9 low of 3.5487. The focus remains on the implementation of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement announced yesterday.

  • Israeli PM's Office accused Hamas of creating a last-minute crisis to upset the ceasefire deal that will take effect from Jan 19, adding that it will delay the cabinet vote on the deal until it receives a notification that Hamas has accepted all of its elements. Hamas subsequently denied these accusations, reaffirming its commitment to the deal. Earlier in the day, Kan reported that the cabinet meeting originally scheduled for 09:00GMT/11:00IST was postponed due to ongoing deliberations of the Religious Zionism party and its leader Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich on whether to resign in protest against the deal.
  • Israel's December CPI undershot expectations, coming in at 3.2% Y/Y versus the consensus forecast of +3.4%. Goldman Sachs commented that "the print was broadly in line with the BoI's expectations (in the range of +3.2-3.4% Y/Y)." They point to the impact of shekel appreciation and its pass-through into food inflation, adding that they estimate that core inflation was +3.1% Y/Y. They have recently pushed back their forecast for the next BoI rate cut until Q3 from Q1.
  • Final Q3 GDP data headlines the local data docket today and will be released at 11:00GMT/13:00IST.
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Spot USD/ILS has crept higher and last deals +119 pips at 3.6243, with bulls looking for a rally towards Dec 30 high of 3.7064. On the flip side, bears keep an eye on Dec 9 low of 3.5487. The focus remains on the implementation of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement announced yesterday.

  • Israeli PM's Office accused Hamas of creating a last-minute crisis to upset the ceasefire deal that will take effect from Jan 19, adding that it will delay the cabinet vote on the deal until it receives a notification that Hamas has accepted all of its elements. Hamas subsequently denied these accusations, reaffirming its commitment to the deal. Earlier in the day, Kan reported that the cabinet meeting originally scheduled for 09:00GMT/11:00IST was postponed due to ongoing deliberations of the Religious Zionism party and its leader Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich on whether to resign in protest against the deal.
  • Israel's December CPI undershot expectations, coming in at 3.2% Y/Y versus the consensus forecast of +3.4%. Goldman Sachs commented that "the print was broadly in line with the BoI's expectations (in the range of +3.2-3.4% Y/Y)." They point to the impact of shekel appreciation and its pass-through into food inflation, adding that they estimate that core inflation was +3.1% Y/Y. They have recently pushed back their forecast for the next BoI rate cut until Q3 from Q1.
  • Final Q3 GDP data headlines the local data docket today and will be released at 11:00GMT/13:00IST.