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Shell: Muted Update Note But Overnight Oil Should Support Spreads

BASIC INDUSTRIES

Shell 1Q24 “update note” is out with production figures looking good but downstream a little weaker and OpEx looking greater than current consensus. Overall appears a slight spread negative but likely to be drowned out by the overnight spike in oil price, we feel.


  • Integrated gas LNG volumes are 7.2-7.6MT (cons: 7.7) and upstream oil production is 1,820-1,920 kboe/d (cons: 1,538) so both key production figures look marginally ahead of consensus. LNG trading is “strong” but lower than the “exceptional” 4Q23 .
  • Marketing sales are 2,150-2,550kb/d (cons: 2,544) and Chemicals & Products indicative margin is USD12/bbl (cons: 12.4) with refinery utilisation at 89-93% (cons: 87.8%) so marginally lagging here, overall.
  • OpEx looks to be broadly in line with adjusted 4Q23 figures, but LNG guidance is above consensus (1.2 vs. 1.2-1.6 guidance) similar to upstream oil (2.3 vs. 2.7-3.1 guidance). OpEx in marketing and chemicals look in line.
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