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Shock Drop In Supercore With Core Services CPI Nearly Halving

US DATA

For that shockingly low supercore figure:

  • Core services inflation nearly halved to +0.22% M/M (+0.41% prior) in May, the lowest print since September 2021. Seeing the recently super-hot car insurance category unexpectedly go negative with airfares very negative, helping drive supercore lower.
  • As for housing: OER ticks up to 0.43% (0.42% prior), with tenant rents up to 0.39% (from 0.35%), but both within expectations.
  • That's with core goods at -0.04% M/M (-0.11% prior, a touch higher than the -0.08% expected but basically in-line).
  • Here's what those categories looked like vs MNI's median consensus - note both headline and core both very soft vs expectations (red=higher than median expectation, green = lower).
  • For headline, food inflation was slightly firmer than expected, with energy softer - motor fuels as expected dropped 3.6%.

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