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Shock Poll Gains Focus, But CDU's Cause For Concern Is Gradual Decline

GERMANY

A shock opinion poll from Forsa shows the environmentalist Greens leading the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) for the first time since September 2019, just days after CDU head Armin Laschet was confirmed as the joint CDU-CSU candidate for chancellor in the September federal election.

  • Germany, Forsa poll: GRÜNE-G/EFA: 28% (+5), CDU/CSU-EPP: 21% (-6), SPD-S&D: 13% (-2), FDP-RE: 12% (+3), AfD-ID: 11%, LINKE-LEFT: 7% (-1), +/- vs. 6-12 April 2021, Fieldwork: 20 April 2021, Sample size: 1,502
  • It should be noted that this poll sits as a significant outlier and therefore should not be taken as an indicator of definitive voting intentions.
  • Potentially of more concern than a single outlier (at present) is the continued gradual decline in support for the CDU-CSU seen in most other polls. From an average lead of around 15-17% over the Greens in February 2021, this has dwindled to around 7% in April.
  • Germany, INSA poll: CDU/CSU-EPP: 27% (-1), GRÜNE-G/EFA: 22% (+1), SPD-S&D: 16%, AfD-ID: 12%, FDP-RE: 11%, LINKE-LEFT: 7%. +/- vs. 16-19 April 2021. Fieldwork: 20 April 2021. Sample size: 1,000
  • While there are still several months until the election, the CDU-CSU will have to arrest this slide if it is to guarantee its participation in the next gov't. The selection of the seemingly unpopular Laschet as its chancellor candidate makes this a more difficult task.
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