LEBLANC: HE AND TRUDEAU FOCUSED ON US TARIFFS, AFFORDABILITY

MNI BRIEF: Macklem Has ‘Open Mind’ On Right BOC Inflation Goal

CANADA SWEARS IN DOMINIC LEBLANC AS FINANCE MINISTER

MNI BRIEF: US ISM Expects Increased Revenues, Sticky Prices

MNI NBH WATCH: Policy Pause To Continue, Fresh Projections Due

MNI NBH POLICY: NBH To Hold Rates As Inflation In Line

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 1/3/6-Month UKTB Auction on Friday

MNI: US DEC FLASH MANUF PMI 48.3 (FCST: 49.5); NOV 49.7

MNI: US NY FED EMPIRE STATE MFG INDEX 0.2 DEC

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

US TSYS: Short-End Remains Anchored To Start Fed Week

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America

Treasuries softened slightly Monday, with the Fed's December rate decision and communications coming into view.

  • After modest upticks overnight in a minor recovery from last week's sell-off, stronger-than-expected preliminary December Services PMIs applied downside pressure on Treasuries.
  • Futures would hit their worst levels around midday ET after president-elect Trump noted there had been some progress in stopping the war in Ukraine.
  • That saw futures briefly hit their weakest intraday point since Nov 22 (TYH5 109-24.5), though losses were pared modestly going into the cash close.
  • The cash curve lightly bear steepened on the day. Short end yields were unchanged, with the FOMC rate path seen very slightly more dovish than on Friday (1bp added to 2025 cuts), but this week's rate decision considered to be a done deal (25bp cut remaining ~95+% implied).
  • Attention turns to Tuesday's Retail Sales data, with the Fed decision coming up on Wednesday as mentioned.
  • The MNI Markets Team's Fed analyst preview, as well as our Policy Team's Sources article out today, point to expectations that the FOMC will signal 3 25bp cuts in 2025 via its Dot Plot, compared with 4 25bp cuts envisaged in the last set of forecasts in September.
  • Latest levels: The Mar 25 T-Note future is down 1/32 at 109-27, having traded in a range of 109-24.5 to 110-35. In cash, the 2-Yr yield is unchanged at 4.2448%, 5-Yr is up 0.4bps at 4.2535%, 10-Yr is up 0.4bps at 4.4007%, and 30-Yr is up 1.4bps at 4.615%.
240 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Treasuries softened slightly Monday, with the Fed's December rate decision and communications coming into view.

  • After modest upticks overnight in a minor recovery from last week's sell-off, stronger-than-expected preliminary December Services PMIs applied downside pressure on Treasuries.
  • Futures would hit their worst levels around midday ET after president-elect Trump noted there had been some progress in stopping the war in Ukraine.
  • That saw futures briefly hit their weakest intraday point since Nov 22 (TYH5 109-24.5), though losses were pared modestly going into the cash close.
  • The cash curve lightly bear steepened on the day. Short end yields were unchanged, with the FOMC rate path seen very slightly more dovish than on Friday (1bp added to 2025 cuts), but this week's rate decision considered to be a done deal (25bp cut remaining ~95+% implied).
  • Attention turns to Tuesday's Retail Sales data, with the Fed decision coming up on Wednesday as mentioned.
  • The MNI Markets Team's Fed analyst preview, as well as our Policy Team's Sources article out today, point to expectations that the FOMC will signal 3 25bp cuts in 2025 via its Dot Plot, compared with 4 25bp cuts envisaged in the last set of forecasts in September.
  • Latest levels: The Mar 25 T-Note future is down 1/32 at 109-27, having traded in a range of 109-24.5 to 110-35. In cash, the 2-Yr yield is unchanged at 4.2448%, 5-Yr is up 0.4bps at 4.2535%, 10-Yr is up 0.4bps at 4.4007%, and 30-Yr is up 1.4bps at 4.615%.