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Free AccessShort End Support Wanes Late, Projected Yr End Rate Cuts Ease
- As such, projected rate cuts for late 2023 have eased slightly. September cumulative -26.9bp (-30.7bp earlier) at 4.800%, November cumulative -52.0bp (-56.1bp earlier) at 4.549%, Dec'23 cumulative -76.5bp (-81.2bp earlier) at 4.304%, while Jan'24 cumulative is running at -100.9bp vs. -105.9bp this morning. Fed Terminal currently at 5.07% in Jun'23 this morning.
- Treasury futures had dipped briefly following the BOE 25bp rate hike this morning , but quickly bounced after regional banks took the focus off the BOE rate hike announcement. Risk-off as PacWest falls 26% following 10Q filing mentions of asset quality, deposit decline and heavy goodwill impairment loss of $1.38B.
- Curves bull steepened following Core PPI inflation in April was on balance close to expected if not slightly stronger, with ex food & energy stronger but weaker when also stripping out trade services.
- Meanwhile, Treasury reacted positively after a decent $21B 30Y auction (912810TR9) trades through with 3.741% high yield vs. 3.755% WI; 2.43x bid-to-cover vs. 2.36x prior month. Indirect take-up 72.43% vs. 69.12% prior; direct bidder take-up 17.36% vs. 19.80% prior; primary dealer take-up 10.21% vs. 11.09%.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.