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Short End Tsys Firm Ahead Tuesday CPI

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures holding mixed levels after the bell, off midmorning lows to near top end of a narrow overnight range. Rather muted trade as accounts ply the sidelines ahead Tuesday mornings CPI inflation data.
  • Curves mixed: 3M10Y -3.803 at -80.011 vs. -81.043 low, 2Y10Y +0.385 at -40.875 vs. -43.614 low. Dec 10Y futures above initial technical support: trading 107-14.5 last (+1), support below at 107-02.5 (Low Nov 2). Resistance well above at 108-25 (High Nov 3 and the next bull trigger).
  • Projected rate cut chance into early 2024 steady/near recent lows: December at 3.6bp at 5.363%, January 2024 cumulative 7.1bp at 5.398%, while March 2024 pricing in -16.5% chance of a rate cut with cumulative at 3bp at 5.356%, May 2024 cumulative -6.2bp at 5.265%. Fed terminal at 5.395% in Feb'24.
  • Main focus on CPI Tuesday morning, CPI MoM (0.4% prior, 0.1% est), YoY (3.7% prior, 3.3% est). Multiple Fed speakers on tap as well Tuesday: Richmond Fed Barkin economic outlook, no text, Q&A at 0830ET; Fed VC Barr oversight of financial regulators testimony at 1000ET; Chicago Fed Goolsbee on policy, eco outlook, text TBA, Q&A at 1245ET.
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