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Short End Weaker Pre-Payrolls

FED

The Tsy curve is a little flatter Friday ahead of nonfarm payrolls.

  • The 2-Yr yield is up 1.2bps at 0.4366%, 5-Yr is up 0.8bps at 1.1185%, 10-Yr is up 0.2bps at 1.5281%, and 30-Yr is down 0.6bps at 1.9575%.
  • Media reported overnight that Fed's Powell had been seen visiting the White House Thursday (WSJ), and the administration asked Dem senators to meet with him before Thanksgiving (Axios).
  • That's raised his implied betting probability of re-nomination to 87% from 75% yesterday (PredictIt) - a possible explanation for short-end underperformance, as the main alternative, Brainard, is seen as more dovish on rate liftoff.
  • The main event in Friday's session is October nonfarm payrolls: expected to have risen by 450k, vs 194k in September, per both the MNI Dealer Median / Bloomberg survey median. Unemp rate seen falling 0.1pp to 4.7%. We'll post sell-side commentary shortly. We also get Consumer Credit at 1500ET.
  • House planning to meet at 0800ET; looking to vote on $1.75T package today.
  • No supply; NY Fed buys ~$8.425B in 2.25-4.5Y Tsys.
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