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Short-term Rates Driving Financial Stocks

CZECHIA
  • While ST interest rates in Czech Republic keep reaching new highs as CNB has embarked on a tightening cycle, long-term bond yields keep falling globally amid rising uncertainty over a range of risk factors (Delta variant, falling Chinese liquidity, rising political instability…).
  • Czech 2Y10Y yield curve has flattened by 100bps since December 2020 to 32bps today.
  • Interestingly, Czech financial stocks have trending higher in the past 6 months and have not been impacted by the sharp fall in LT bond yields.
  • The chart below shows that Czech financials have co-moved strongly with ST bond yields in the past few years.
  • Hence, higher ST yields should continue to support cyclical stocks such as financials in the near to medium term.
  • As a reminder, CNB is expected to raise its policy rate by 25bps to 0.75% tomorrow (August 5).

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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