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Shuttered Fields Put Upside Back in Focus For Oil

  • WTI and Brent crude futures traded positively Monday, putting the focus back on the upside for oil futures. After key support had been tested in the earlier half of last week, prices are back on the front foot, recording a fourth consecutive session of higher highs and higher lows. The shuttering of Libya's largest oil field has added to an already complicated supply picture, as widespread protests against the government spread throughout the oil industry. This drops Libya's daily output from as high as 1.2mln bpd, to less than half.
  • Mainland European supply also remains in focus, with the Kremlin Monday stating that talks with Ukraine are continuing on an 'expert' level, but there remain few signs of progress. On gas payments, Moscow have stated that there remains time for payments to switch to RUB, with some settlements expected in May.
  • The rally puts Brent futures in range of $119.74, the Mar 24 high and bull trigger. Meanwhile, $108.75/112.93 is being probed in WTI markets, the highs from Mar 30 / Mar 28.
  • Gold trades well to kick off the new week amid lower US equity markets. The short-term outlook is bullish following last week’s move above $1966.1, the Mar 24 high. The breach highlights a range breakout and suggests scope for an extension of current short-term gains. The focus is on $2001.6 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key support has been defined at $1890.2, the Mar 29 low. A breach of this support would reinstate a bearish threat.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 |

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