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Significant Higher Rates For Longer Push After Strong CPI Report

CANADA
  • CAD rates have continued to sell-off, although later moves have been more linked to US spillover to modestly build on a large reaction to stronger than expected Canadian CPI.
  • CORU3/Z4 has seen a significant tightening on the day from -39bps to -24.5bps for fresh absolute lows since Aug’22. That spread partly hides CORRA implied yields now seen topping out with the Mar’24 contract with more than one additional hike priced (5.295%), and with that first cut not coming until the Dec'24.
  • The Dec’24 implied yield of 4.88% has increased more than 25bps since the close following the Sep 6 BoC decision.
  • Tomorrow sees the BoC minutes from that decision shortly before the FOMC decision.

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