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Single Currency Softer, With CPI Below Forecast

FOREX
  • The single currency sits lower against all others in G10, with EUR/USD back below 1.0850 and through the Jun23 lows at 1.0844. Perhaps more importantly, the 50-day EMA support has now broken, widening the scope for a more protracted pullback in the pair toward 1.0804, the Jun 15 low and 1.0733, the Jun 12 low. Moves come alongside the Eurozone CPI estimate for June, which slipped just below forecast at 5.5% vs. Exp. 5.6%.
  • NOK sits at the other end of the G10 table, firmer and tipping EUR/NOK through the 50-dma as the Norges Bank confirm that the pace of their FX purchase program is to slow to NOK 1bln per day, the slowest pace in over a year. Cross next targets support at 11.5306, a break below which would target the 100-dma.
  • Outside of currency markets, risk appetite is generally firmer. Equity futures are in the green, indicating a higher open on Wall Street later today. A number of European index futures are within range of the mid-June highs, however Italian equities have pushed higher still - putting the FTSE-MIB at the best levels since 2008 during Friday trade.
  • MNI Chicago PMI due later Friday is the calendar highlight. Markets expect PMI to bounce to 43.8 from 40.4 previously. US personal income/spending crosses for May as well as the monthly April Canadian GDP print. There are no central bank speakers of note.
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