Sinwar's Elevation To Hamas Leader Reduces Prospect Of Gaza Ceasefire

Hamas has confirmed that its leader in the Gaza Strip, Yahya Sinwar, has been elected to its seniormost position, leader of the political bureau, following the killing of previous office-holder Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week. Sinwar, alongside Haniyeh, is seen as one of the key architects of the 7 Oct attacks on Israel and is currently Israel's most-wanted man.

• As the FT notes, "Diplomats in the region had expected Haniyeh to be replaced by another member of the political leadership in Qatar, where he had been living in exile. His killing was considered a setback for the diplomatic efforts to end the conflict, as he was the main interlocutor dealing with Qatari and Egyptian mediators."
• Sinwar, who was a key figure in the establishment of Hamas' military wing, the Qassam Brigades, is viewed as a much more militant figure than Haniyeh, and one less likely to accept a ceasefire offer that he views as injurious to Hamas' interests. He is believed to have lived in tunnels below Khan Younis or Rafah since the 7 Oct attacks, and it remains to be seen whether he emerges to travel to Doha to take up Haniyeh's role in negotiations physically.
• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Sinwar's elevation that “He has been and remains the primary decider when it comes to concluding a ceasefire. And so I think this only underscores the fact that it is really on him to decide whether to move forward with a ceasefire...”