MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, December 13

MNI BRIEF: PBOC To Curb Any Yuan Overshot : PBOC Zou

MNI: GERMANY OCT EXPORTS -2.8% M/M (VS FCST -2.6%)

CHINA YTD NEW LOANS CNY17.1 TRLN VS MEDIAN CNY17.5 TRLN: PBOC

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY14.2 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1876 Fri; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI: EUROZONE OCT IP +0% M/M, -1.2% Y/Y

MNI: SPAIN NOV HICP +0% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y

MNI: FRANCE NOV HICP -0.1% M/M, +1.7% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Sizeable Bear Steepening Amidst Consumer Confidence Beat and Heavy Supply

US TSYS
  • Treasuries have seen a sizeable bear steepening today, driven by stronger than expected Conference Board consumer confidence (despite a weak labor differential) and then more notably sizeable tails for double 2Y and 5Y auctions with their particularly low bid-to-cover metrics (lowest since Nov’21 and Feb’21 respectively).
  • Kashkari (non-voter) earlier saying he doesn’t think anyone has taken rate increases off the table, albeit with him seeing quite low odds of a hike, had little immediate impact. Similarly, WTI gains of 3.2% have done little to stop the steepening on the day.
  • Cash yields sit between +2.4bp (2s) and +8.6bps (30s) on the day, with 2s10s at -43bps for a firm lift from Friday’s YtD low of -48.3bps.
  • 10Y yields have easily cleared 4.50% and hold around 4.54% for now, at highs since the May 3 payrolls report.
  • 2Y yields meanwhile at 4.972% have already cleared pre-payrolls levels but could see more resistance to hit 5% having last briefly breached that handle on Apr 30 for one day before the FOMC May 1 announcement.
  • TYM4 cleared a key support at 108-15 (May 14 low) with the 5Y auction before hitting a low of 108-08. Next support is seen at 108-06 (May 3 low) after which lies 108-06 (May 2 low).
  • Fed Funds implied rates have lifted to show just 19bp of cumulative cuts priced for Nov and 32bp for Dec.
  • Tomorrow sees the Beige Book but greater focus is likely on continued supply with $44bn of 7Y supply on the docket after a combined $139bn over 2Y and 5Y notes today.
  • Data focus lies on second estimates of Q1 national accounts Thu before the April PCE report on Fri.
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