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AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS

(U2) More Stable But Still Fragile

AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS

(U2) Back Above Bear Trigger

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Sizeable Fluctuations In GoC Yields

CANADA
BulletMarketsFixed Income
  • There was a fiscal surplus of C$5.5B in Feb compared with a deficit of C$14.4B in Feb’21 as revenues surged back with a 48% increase along with a 14% fall in program spending.
  • Despite this, yields have pushed back nearer to session highs seen after the strong GDP plus US ECI/spending data before fading in part with the MNI Chicago PMI miss -- 2YY currently +10bps, 10YY +8.5bps.
  • TD on May 1 extension: will occur on May 2 (0.08 years for overall). The extension likely underwhelms as it is not a traditional extension date, and it is the first of this set of extensions (May 1, June 1 and June 15) but it will set the stage for a very constructive backdrop in May.
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  • There was a fiscal surplus of C$5.5B in Feb compared with a deficit of C$14.4B in Feb’21 as revenues surged back with a 48% increase along with a 14% fall in program spending.
  • Despite this, yields have pushed back nearer to session highs seen after the strong GDP plus US ECI/spending data before fading in part with the MNI Chicago PMI miss -- 2YY currently +10bps, 10YY +8.5bps.
  • TD on May 1 extension: will occur on May 2 (0.08 years for overall). The extension likely underwhelms as it is not a traditional extension date, and it is the first of this set of extensions (May 1, June 1 and June 15) but it will set the stage for a very constructive backdrop in May.