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Sizeable Moderation In Regional Fed PCE Measures In June

US DATA
  • The Dallas Fed trimmed mean measure of PCE inflation slowed from 3.5% to 2.5% annualized in June, its softest month since Apr’21. That is to roughly imply that core PCE slowing to 0.165% M/M appeared to have some large downside drivers but less than was the case behind the one-off 0.08% M/M of Jul’22.
  • The six-month equivalent is still elevated and can be used to argue that we’ve only seen a couple lower prints, but it too slowed from 4.4% to 4.1% annualized for its lowest since Dec’21.
  • The Y/Y meanwhile slowed from 4.62% to 4.24% Y/Y off the cycle high of 4.80% Y/Y from April.
  • Supporting this is a similar moderation in the Cleveland Fed median PCE, which eased from 5.45% to 5.02% Y/Y to further off its cycle high of 5.87% Y/Y from March.

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