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Sizeable Odds Of July BoC Hike Ahead Of A Busy Five Weeks

CANADA
  • BoC-dated OIS currently sits with a little under +20bps priced for the Jul 12 BoC decision in just five weeks before an almost two-month break until Sep 6.
  • It comes on Governing Council’s view that mon pol was not sufficiently restrictive to bring supply and demand back into balance, something a 25bp hike in isolation is unlikely to change materially.
  • It has seen BAX implied yields surge on unusually high volumes, with the front Jun’23 +13bps, Dec’23 +21.5bps and Jun’24 +24bps.
  • The BAM3/Z3 spread has increased to +28.5bps (nudging highs since the Dec’23 contract started trading in Dec’20) from +14bps after payrolls on Friday and negative as recently as mid-May. The BAM3/Z4 meanwhile narrows to -81.5bp for its highest since October.
  • The five-week gap to the next BoC meeting is packed with important releases, with two labour reports (first lands on Fri), one CPI report, monthly GDP and quarterly business and consumer surveys.

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