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Sizeable Twist Steepening With Few Scheduled Drivers Ahead

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys see a sizeable steepening as the front-end rallies with Fed hike expectations further out being trimmed but the belly to long-end selling off in a similar move to European FI albeit with some outperformance from haven demand.
  • 2YY -3.7bps at 2.694%, 5YY unch at 3.078%, 10YY +5.4bps at 3.181% and 30YY +6.4bps at 3.290%, with 5Y yields of note having touched new highs since Sep-2008 and 2s10s of 49bps the highest since mid-Feb.
  • TYM2 sits 11+ ticks lower at 117-14+ having recently moved off new cycle lows of 117-08+ (which form initial resistance) on above average volumes. Another clearance here would open 116-28 (0.764 proj of the Mar 7-28-31 price swing) whilst resistance is materially higher at the 20-day EMA of 118-17.
  • Data: Wholesale Inventories/Sales (100ET)
  • Fedspeak: None scheduled but can’t rule out pop-up interviews
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $45B 13-W bills, US Tsy $45B 26-W bills (1130ET)
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