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SK Terms of Trade Plummet as Authorities Warn of FX Risk

SOUTH KOREA
  • The South Korean finance ministry strengthened their language concerning currencies earlier today, with the finance minister Kyung-ho warning that 'market sentiment may be one-sided' and that the authorities would step up monitoring on possible speculative trading.
  • Judging by their actions earlier this year, this morning's comments strongly suggest the Korean finance ministry could intervene further in the KRW, and will keep focus on their FX reserves pile (last reported at $439bln, down from $469bln in late 2021).
  • This morning, the USD/KRW rate hit a new cycle high and the best level since the Global Financial Crisis, with Citi's terms of trade dropping to a new series low (on records going back to the mid-1990s) and suggests the recent trend of surging import costs (July's Y/Y import price index rose 27.9%) is far from over.
  • The comments come ahead of this Thursday's BoK rate decision, at which the bank are expected to raise rates by 25bps to 2.50% - but could come under pressure to take sharper action.

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com

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