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Skingsley: "Asset holdings need to remain unchanged in 2022"

RIKSBANK
  • "I advocate a cautious approach. Given the inflation forecast for the next three years, asset holdings need to remain unchanged in 2022. Once a portfolio wind-down is initiated, it needs to be gradual and predictable."
  • "Given the gradual increase in cost pressures over the forecast period, a higher repo rate after 2023 is perfectly reasonable."
  • "If the economic outlook changes in such a way that a different monetary policy forecast is justified than the one decided today, I see the repo rate as the primary tool, rather than making specific changes to the asset portfolio, in addition to the projected unwinding. The reason for this is that we have more knowledge about the impact of changes in the policy rate on the economy as a whole compared to the purchase, management and maturity of interest-bearing securities."
  • "With a persistently low real interest rate, the Riksbank will find it difficult to stimulate the economy sufficiently in a future recession with the repo rate alone. With the limited room for manoeuvre, it is therefore important not to be in too much of a hurry to tighten. Put simply, the scope for correcting this, should it turn out to be wrong, is very limited."

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