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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessSlight Firming In Final EZ Core CPI Allows ECB Pricing To Move Off Dovish Session Extremes
The incremental move higher in the final Eurozone core CPI Y/Y reading for June, along with a move away from firmest levels of the day in broader core global FI, has helped the ECB-dated OIS space to tick away from UK CPI-inspired dovish extremes. That leaves the liquid contracts in the space little changed on the day. A 25bp hike at next week’s meeting is fully priced, while ~40bp of cumulative tightening is priced through the September gathering. Beyond there, terminal deposit rate pricing hovers back above 3.95%.
ECB Meeting | €STR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp) |
Jul-23 | 3.646 | +24.7 |
Sep-23 | 3.800 | +40.1 |
Oct-23 | 3.840 | +44.1 |
Dec-23 | 3.872 | +47.3 |
Jan-24 | 3.846 | +44.7 |
Mar-24 | 3.804 | +40.5 |
Apr-24 | 3.734 | +33.5 |
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.