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Slight hawkish bias versus market - broadly in line with MNI Markets expectations

BOE
  • So the tightening bias is gone and replaced with "keep under review for how long Bank Rate should be maintained at its current level."- The rest of the rest of the guidance left unchanged.
  • The only mention of cuts is due to Dhingra's dovish dissent (we had seen this as a 40% prob)
  • Still have 2 members voting for a hike (in line with our view of 1-2 but consensnus had expected 9-0)
  • Forecasts show inflation in line with consensus at 1.9%Y/Y in 3-years.
  • Overall the vote split and the tightening bias being removed (even though the latter was expected) makes this slightly hawkish at first glance.
  • Markets now price May as 50/50 for a cut (down from -13.7bp 10 mins pre-meeting, 112bp of cuts priced for 2024, down from 115bp pre-meeting.
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