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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
POLAND
- While consensus is still pricing NBP to keep policy rates steady through 2022 to maintain financial conditions as loose as possible and therefore stimulate growth after a difficult Q1, some sell side firms are starting to speculate that NBP could hike interest rates in 2022.
- According to Bloomberg, BNP mentioned in its latest report that the probability of a hike in H2 2022 has increased slightly:
- First, NBP could follow the global normalization trend in interest rates in 2022 (STIR market is pricing in a hike next year for the US and the UK).
- Second, 8 NBP members also end their term early next year, which increases the uncertainty over the trajectory of ST interest rates.
- As a reminder, core CPI surged to 3.9% in March (up from 3.7% the previous month), diverging from the NBP 3.5% upper tolerance band. Based on recent NBP policymakers' speeches, inflationary pressures are expecting to continue to rise in the short term before starting to ease in the second half of this year.
- The 10Y yield has consolidated lower this month after failing to break through its 1.60% resistance, and recently broke below its 50D SMA, which has been acting as a ST resistance in recent days. Supports to watch on the downside stand at 1.45%, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibo retracement of the 1.11% - 1.66% range, followed by 1.36% (100D SMA). On the topside, key resistance stands at 1.60%.
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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