Slightly Dated Note From Nomura Re: Chinese COVID Restrictions Being Recirculated

{CH} A note from Nomura, released around THURSDAY LUNCHTIME Beijing time, is being recirculated at present. Nomura’s Chinese economics team wrote “while we do think Beijing is likely to introduce some fine-tuning of Covid measures in coming weeks, potentially within the next few days, amid worsening growth and increased dissatisfaction, we caution that expectations regarding such a scenario should remain realistic.”

• “In our view, a real reopening becomes more likely after March 2023, when the political reshuffle is finally completed, but the exact timing and format of such a reopening will likely remain uncertain, even at that time. We believe a difficult period after March 2023 appears unavoidable: if the shift towards “living with Covid” is slow, people might become quite disappointed, reducing their investment and consumption demand. If Beijing takes material steps towards ditching the ZCS, the infection rate could very likely surge in a short period of time, as the Chinese people have been well insulated from Covid and many still view Covid as a highly deadly virus with a high probability of serious sequelae.”