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Slightly Flatter Curve With US Tsys, Local Calendar Light

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ACGB curve (YM flat & XM +1.0) is slightly flatter after the US curve twist-flattened ahead of the Memorial Day long weekend. US markets are closed today, but futures will be open.

  • The US tsy 2/10 curve finished Friday at its most inverted level since December at -48bps. The 10-year yield met firm resistance at 4.50%, last seen May 14, closing at 4.465%.
  • UofM Consumer Sentiment was stronger than its preliminary reading, but Inflation Expectations retraced. Consumers’ Expectations for five-to-10 years of inflation decreased to 3.0%, from 3.1%, earlier in the month.
  • Meanwhile, US Durable Goods Orders rose a stronger-than-expected 0.7% in April (-0.8% est), although there was a downward revision to the previous month.
  • Cash ACGBs are flat to 1bp richer, with the 3/10 curve flatter and the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -17bps.
  • Swap rates are flat to 1bp lower.
  • The bills strip is flat to -2, with late whites/early reds the weakest.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-2bps firmer for meetings beyond November. Only 5bps of easing is priced by year-end from an expected terminal rate of 4.36%.
  • Today, the local calendar is empty ahead of Retail Sales tomorrow and the CPI Monthly for April on Wednesday.
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ACGB curve (YM flat & XM +1.0) is slightly flatter after the US curve twist-flattened ahead of the Memorial Day long weekend. US markets are closed today, but futures will be open.

  • The US tsy 2/10 curve finished Friday at its most inverted level since December at -48bps. The 10-year yield met firm resistance at 4.50%, last seen May 14, closing at 4.465%.
  • UofM Consumer Sentiment was stronger than its preliminary reading, but Inflation Expectations retraced. Consumers’ Expectations for five-to-10 years of inflation decreased to 3.0%, from 3.1%, earlier in the month.
  • Meanwhile, US Durable Goods Orders rose a stronger-than-expected 0.7% in April (-0.8% est), although there was a downward revision to the previous month.
  • Cash ACGBs are flat to 1bp richer, with the 3/10 curve flatter and the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -17bps.
  • Swap rates are flat to 1bp lower.
  • The bills strip is flat to -2, with late whites/early reds the weakest.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-2bps firmer for meetings beyond November. Only 5bps of easing is priced by year-end from an expected terminal rate of 4.36%.
  • Today, the local calendar is empty ahead of Retail Sales tomorrow and the CPI Monthly for April on Wednesday.