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Slightly Higher As USD & Yields Slip After Weak US Data

GOLD

Gold is slightly higher in the Asia-Pac session, after closing +0.2% on Wednesday as the USD and US tsy yields slipped after weaker-than-expected data.

  • US economic data was generally softer than expected. Q2 GDP rose at a revised 2.1% annual rate which was below the previous estimate of 2.4%. There were also downside revisions to the GDP deflator, from 2.2% to 2.0%, and core PCE price index from 3.8% to 3.7%. ADP also missed estimates (177k versus 195k expected), albeit with a caveat of an upward revision.
  • Near-term Fed Funds implied rates show +3bp for Sept and a cumulative +12bp for Nov to 5.45% terminal, down by 5.5bp from pre-JOLTS levels on Tuesday. Cuts from the terminal are seen at 52bp to Jun’24 and 121bp to Dec’24.
  • The focus now turns to the release of the July PCE deflator, MNI Chicago PMI, Challenger Job Cuts and weekly Jobless Claims data later today, along with Fedspeak from Bostic and Collins. US Non-Farm Payrolls data is due on Friday.
  • Bullion hit a high of 1949.05 yesterday. This just cleared resistance at $1948.3, the 61.8% retrace of the Jul 20-Aug 21 bear leg, according to MNI's technicals team. A more concerted push higher will now be needed to test the next resistance at $1963.3 (76.4% retrace).
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