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Slightly Richer After Jobs Miss, UE Rises To 3.8% From 3.7%

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM +5.0 & XM +6.5) are slightly richer after the release of the Employment Report for March. Employment fell 6,585 m/m (estimate +10.0k) in March versus a revised +117.6k in February. Full-time employment rose 27,914 m/m versus a revised +79.4k in February. The Jobless rate rose to 3.8% (estimate 3.9%) from 3.7% in February.

  • (ABS) "The small drop in employment in March followed a larger-than-usual flow of people into employment in February, following smaller-than-usual flows in December and January. However, in March, the flows into employment had returned to a more usual pattern."
  • “The labour market remained relatively tight in March, with an employment-to-population ratio and participation rate still close to their record highs in November 2023. While they have both fallen by 0.4 percentage points since then, they continue to be much higher than their pre-pandemic levels.”
  • NAB Quarterly Business Confidence rose To -2 in Q1.
  • Cash ACGBs are 5-6bps richer on the day, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential 2bps higher at -26bps.
  • Swap rates are 4-6bps lower on the day, with the 3s10s curve flatter.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened on the day, with pricing +1to +5.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 2-4bps softer for meetings beyond September on the day. A cumulative 16bps of easing is priced by year-end.
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ACGBs (YM +5.0 & XM +6.5) are slightly richer after the release of the Employment Report for March. Employment fell 6,585 m/m (estimate +10.0k) in March versus a revised +117.6k in February. Full-time employment rose 27,914 m/m versus a revised +79.4k in February. The Jobless rate rose to 3.8% (estimate 3.9%) from 3.7% in February.

  • (ABS) "The small drop in employment in March followed a larger-than-usual flow of people into employment in February, following smaller-than-usual flows in December and January. However, in March, the flows into employment had returned to a more usual pattern."
  • “The labour market remained relatively tight in March, with an employment-to-population ratio and participation rate still close to their record highs in November 2023. While they have both fallen by 0.4 percentage points since then, they continue to be much higher than their pre-pandemic levels.”
  • NAB Quarterly Business Confidence rose To -2 in Q1.
  • Cash ACGBs are 5-6bps richer on the day, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential 2bps higher at -26bps.
  • Swap rates are 4-6bps lower on the day, with the 3s10s curve flatter.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened on the day, with pricing +1to +5.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 2-4bps softer for meetings beyond September on the day. A cumulative 16bps of easing is priced by year-end.