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Slightly Richer After Local Data, Awaiting RBA Policy Decision

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM -6.0 & XM -9.5) are slightly richer after this morning’s data drop. August home loan values rise 2.2% m/m versus +0.2% est, as private sector home approvals jump 7.0% m/m versus +2.5% est. Meanwhile, ANZ job ads fall 0.1% m/m.

  • The focus today is on the RBA Policy Decision, Michele Bullock’s first meeting as RBA Governor. Bloomberg consensus expects no change in the policy rate for the 4th consecutive month.
  • Cash ACGBs are 6-10bps cheaper, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -10bps.
  • Swap rates are 3-6bps higher, with the 3s10s curve steeper.
  • The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing flat to -8.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is little changed after the data drop, with a 12% chance of a 25bp hike priced for today's meeting. Terminal rate expectations sit at 4.38%, the highest since late July.
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