MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI BRIEF: China Nov Exports Slows, Imports Slide

MNI BRIEF: China Crude Oil Imports Accelerate In November

CHINA NOV EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.9% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY90.3 Bln via OMO Tuesday

US NFIB NOV SMALL BUSINESS INDEX 101.7

MNI: GERMAN NOV CPI +2.2 % Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CORE CPI +0.1% M/M, +3% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

AUSSIE BONDS: Slightly Richer Ahead Of RBA Policy Decision Tomorrow

AUSSIE BONDS
BulletAPACFixed Income BulletsAustraliaMarkets

ACGBs (YM +2.0 & XM +0.5) are holding stronger after dealing in narrow ranges on a data-light Sydney session.

  • The domestic focus of this week will be tomorrow’s RBA decision and Thursday’s November jobs data after October disappointed. The cash rate is unanimously forecast to remain at 4.35% and so the guidance will be monitored closely for any changes. The RBA meeting will be followed by Governor Bullock’s press conference.
  • Bloomberg consensus is again forecasting a 25k increase in employment in November with the unemployment rate rising 0.1pp to 4.2%. The RBA is projecting it to rise to 4.3% in Q4 2024.
  • Cash US tsys are flat to 1bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after Friday’s modest post-payrolls gains. The focus is this week's CPI and PPI inflation data on Wednesday and Thursday respectively.
  • Cash ACGBs are 1-2bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +6bps.
  • Swap rates are 1-2bps lower.
  • The bills strip has twist-flattened, with pricing -2 to +3.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 3bps softer across 2025 meetings. A 25bps rate cut is still not fully anticipated until May. The probability of a rate cut at tomorrow's meeting remains low, with markets assigning only a 9% chance.
196 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

ACGBs (YM +2.0 & XM +0.5) are holding stronger after dealing in narrow ranges on a data-light Sydney session.

  • The domestic focus of this week will be tomorrow’s RBA decision and Thursday’s November jobs data after October disappointed. The cash rate is unanimously forecast to remain at 4.35% and so the guidance will be monitored closely for any changes. The RBA meeting will be followed by Governor Bullock’s press conference.
  • Bloomberg consensus is again forecasting a 25k increase in employment in November with the unemployment rate rising 0.1pp to 4.2%. The RBA is projecting it to rise to 4.3% in Q4 2024.
  • Cash US tsys are flat to 1bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after Friday’s modest post-payrolls gains. The focus is this week's CPI and PPI inflation data on Wednesday and Thursday respectively.
  • Cash ACGBs are 1-2bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +6bps.
  • Swap rates are 1-2bps lower.
  • The bills strip has twist-flattened, with pricing -2 to +3.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 3bps softer across 2025 meetings. A 25bps rate cut is still not fully anticipated until May. The probability of a rate cut at tomorrow's meeting remains low, with markets assigning only a 9% chance.