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Slightly Richer, US Tsys Extend Post-FOMC Rally Ahead OF Non-Farm Payrolls

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM +2.0 & XM +2.5) are richer after US equities and US tsys extended their post-FOMC rallies in a collective sigh of relief that Fed Chair Powell and the FOMC delivered a less hawkish message than feared.

  • The NASDAQ surged 1.5%, led by a bounce in Nvidia, and the S&P 500 was up 0.9%, recovering from the late-session losses yesterday.
  • US tsys shrugged off this morning's higher-than-expected Unit Labor Costs (4.7% vs. 4.0% est, prior down-revised to 0.0% from 0.4%) and Nonfarm Productivity miss (0.3% vs. 0.5% est, prior up-revised to 3.5%).
  • Meanwhile, Initial Jobless Claims printed slightly lower than expected (208k vs. 211k est, 207k prior up-revised to 208k).
  • The focus now turns to Non-Farm Payrolls later today. (See MNI US Payrolls Preview: Fed Sensitive To An Unexpected, Meaningful Weakening here)
  • Cash ACGBs are 3bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -16bps.
  • Swap rates are 3-4bps lower.
  • The bills strip is slightly richer, with pricing +1 to +3.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 2-3bps softer for meetings beyond September. 3bps of easing is priced by year-end from an expected terminal rate of 4.39%.
  • Today, the local calendar will also see Home Loans data. RBA Policy Decsion is on Tuesday.
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