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AUSSIE BONDS: Slightly Richer, US Tsys Little Changed After Holiday

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM +2.0 & XM +2.5) are richer despite US tsys finishing Thursday’s session little changed. US tsys regained early losses after a blockbuster auction for freshly issued seven-year notes. 

  • Volumes were light on the day with European markets still closed for the Christmas holiday.
  • Limited data reaction: Initial jobless claims came out near steady in the Dec 21 week, coming in at 219k (220k prior, unrevised), thus coming in a little below the 223k expected. However, continuing claims (Dec 14 week) were more mixed: the 1,910k was above the 1,881k expected but this was offset by a 13k downward revision to prior (1,864k).
  • Friday US data calendar: Advance Goods Trade Balance (-$101.3B, -$98.3B prior rev), Wholesale Inventories MoM (0.2%, 0.1%) and Retail Inventories MoM (0.1%, 0.3%) at 0830ET.
  • Cash ACGBs are2-3bps richer as trading resumed after the extended Christmas holiday with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -17bps.
  • Swap rates are 3-4bps lower.
  • The bills strip is slightly stronger, with pricing flat to +2.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is slightly softer. A 25bps rate cut is more than fully priced by April (123%). A February cut is a 62% chance according to pricing.
  • Today, the local calendar is empty.  
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ACGBs (YM +2.0 & XM +2.5) are richer despite US tsys finishing Thursday’s session little changed. US tsys regained early losses after a blockbuster auction for freshly issued seven-year notes. 

  • Volumes were light on the day with European markets still closed for the Christmas holiday.
  • Limited data reaction: Initial jobless claims came out near steady in the Dec 21 week, coming in at 219k (220k prior, unrevised), thus coming in a little below the 223k expected. However, continuing claims (Dec 14 week) were more mixed: the 1,910k was above the 1,881k expected but this was offset by a 13k downward revision to prior (1,864k).
  • Friday US data calendar: Advance Goods Trade Balance (-$101.3B, -$98.3B prior rev), Wholesale Inventories MoM (0.2%, 0.1%) and Retail Inventories MoM (0.1%, 0.3%) at 0830ET.
  • Cash ACGBs are2-3bps richer as trading resumed after the extended Christmas holiday with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -17bps.
  • Swap rates are 3-4bps lower.
  • The bills strip is slightly stronger, with pricing flat to +2.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is slightly softer. A 25bps rate cut is more than fully priced by April (123%). A February cut is a 62% chance according to pricing.
  • Today, the local calendar is empty.