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Slightly Softer Peak ECB and BoE Pricing, Still Higher For The Month

STIR

ECB and BoE terminal rate pricing pulled back the most in 4 sessions Tuesday. With few macro or headline catalysts, this mostly represented a pullback from Monday's sharp rise amid thinned liquidity on a US holiday - and most of the July rise remains intact.

  • ECB terminal depo Rate pricing -2.7bp to 4% (51bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Dec 2023). Peak ECB pricing continues to find a ceiling at the 4% mark, with which it flirted throughout Tuesday's session after touching 4.06% Monday. There remains high conviction in a 25bp raise in July (still 88% priced).
  • BoE terminal Bank Rate pricing -1.6bp to 6.3% (130bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Feb 2024). 50bp hike pricing for August's meeting has pulled back a little, with 43bp implied versus 46bp last Friday.


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