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Slightly Stronger, Narrow Range, Q2 CPI Wednesday

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM +2.0 & XM +0.5) are slightly richer after trading in a narrow range in the Sydney session. There hasn’t been much local data other than the preliminary Judo Bank PMI data. The composite index showed that activity contracted in July for the first time since March driven by weaker services performance due to higher rates. Judo Bank believes the data continues to point to a soft landing, as it sees “no signs of impending recession”.

  • US tsys are holding marginally cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session with ranges narrow.
  • Cash ACGBs are 1-2bp richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential -1bp at +16bp.
  • The 3s10s swap curve has twist steepened with rates -2bp to +1bp.
  • The bills strip has bull steepened with pricing +1 to +2.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing 1-3bp softer across meetings. A 59% chance of a 25bp hike is priced for August.
  • (AFR) Stubbornly high residential rents are expected to have an outsized influence on Wednesday’s quarterly inflation figures and feed into the Reserve Bank’s August cash rate decision as it approaches the top of its monetary tightening cycle, economists say. (See link)
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