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Slightly Weaker Ahead of Jobs Data

AUSSIE BONDS

Ahead of the release of the Employment Report for March (0230 BST), ACGBs are holding modestly cheaper (YM -1.0 & XM -1.0) in a narrow range with US Tsys marginally weaker in early Asia-Pac trade. BBG consensus is expecting a 20k increase in employment with an unemployment rate of 3.6%, up from 3.5%. After recent seasonal-induced volatility, the market will be hoping for a clearer picture of the state of the labour market.

  • Cash ACGBs are flat to 1bp cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential +3bp at -14bp.
  • Swap rates are 1-2bp higher with EFPs 1bp wider.
  • Bills strip pricing is flat to -2.
  • RBA dated OIS are flat to 2bp softer across meetings. An 18% chance of a 25bp hike in May is priced.
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