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ARGENTINA: Slowdown In FX Crawling Peg Approaching As Monthly CPI Eases Further

ARGENTINA
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  • Yesterday’s 2.4% m/m increase in November CPI inflation was the lowest monthly rise since July 2020, amid a 1.2% m/m decline in seasonal product prices. Monthly core CPI inflation also decelerated to 2.7%, from 2.9%, bringing annual core inflation down to 155% y/y, from 182%. Economy Minister Caputo posted on X after the data that the government is getting closer to slowing the FX crawling peg to 1%, from 2%.
  • Looking ahead, Itaú expects the disinflation process to continue next year, and now foresees inflation at 30% y/y by end-2025, from 35% previously, significantly below the 120% expected for the end of this year. However, uncertainty remains over the magnitude and timing of the disinflationary effects of the broad set of pro-competition and deregulation measures implemented so far.
  • No macro data are due today, with Q3 GDP and unemployment, and November fiscal and trade figures all expected next week.
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  • Yesterday’s 2.4% m/m increase in November CPI inflation was the lowest monthly rise since July 2020, amid a 1.2% m/m decline in seasonal product prices. Monthly core CPI inflation also decelerated to 2.7%, from 2.9%, bringing annual core inflation down to 155% y/y, from 182%. Economy Minister Caputo posted on X after the data that the government is getting closer to slowing the FX crawling peg to 1%, from 2%.
  • Looking ahead, Itaú expects the disinflation process to continue next year, and now foresees inflation at 30% y/y by end-2025, from 35% previously, significantly below the 120% expected for the end of this year. However, uncertainty remains over the magnitude and timing of the disinflationary effects of the broad set of pro-competition and deregulation measures implemented so far.
  • No macro data are due today, with Q3 GDP and unemployment, and November fiscal and trade figures all expected next week.