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Slowing Commodity Growth Contributing To ISM Prices Downside

US DATA

A lot of attention on the ISM Manufacturing report's Prices Paid index slowing sharply to 68.2 in Dec vs 79.3 expected and 82.4 prior.

  • Worth noting that the deceleration in commodity price increases correlates very strongly to this measure - the BBG Commodity index rose 27% Y/Y in Dec, well down from the mid-high 40%s for most of Apr to Oct 2021.
  • On that basis alone, we're well past the peak in ISM prices paid, unless commodities really pick up from here (current BBG commodities price spot implies 25% Y/Y growth in Jan, slowest since Feb 2021).
  • While the immediate market reaction was dovish, that move has largely faded, with attention already turning to ISM Services Thursday, and the Dec employment report on Friday.

Source: BBG, ISM, MNI

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