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Small Rally Ahead Of Heavy Docket, FOMC Minutes

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have seen a small rally across the curve, at least compared to recent moves, despite further comments hinting at a de-escalation of tensions on the Russia-Ukraine border.
  • 2YY -1.5bps at 1.562%, 5YY -1.3bps at 1.927%, 10YY -0.9bps at 2.035% and 30YY -1.1bps at 2.346%. This maintains yesterday’s steepening, with 2s10s at 47bps after Monday’s low of 38bps had touched the flattest since Apr 2020.
  • TYH2 is up 2+ ticks on the day at 125-26 on low volumes. It is broadly in the middle of yesterday’s range post-initial Russia comments of some units returning to base. It continues to sit above first support of 125-17+ (Feb 10 low) after which it would open 125-06+ (low May 30, 2019, cont).
  • Fed: Kashkari (2023 voter) speaks at 1100ET followed by FOMC minutes at 1400ET, although they are pre-dated by surprisingly strong payrolls and inflation data.
  • Data: A heavy docket with retail sales, international prices, IP, capacity utilisation, business inventories and NAHB housing index.
  • Issuance: US Tsy $9B 20Y auction (1300ET).
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