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Small Rise In Employment & Unemployment Rate Forecast

AUSTRALIA DATA

Australia’s July employment data print on Thursday and are expected to show a small rise in jobs with a 0.1pp increase in the unemployment rate. The RBA noted in its August minutes that there has been a “small rise in the underemployment rate”, which is one of the labour market indicators it monitors closely.

  • Bloomberg consensus expects July employment to rise 15k after 32.6k in June. Forecasts are in a broad range from -20k to +45k with most between +5k and +25k. Of the big 4 local banks only NAB is at consensus with CBA forecasting +20k and ANZ & Westpac +25k.
  • June’s unemployment rate came in at 3.47%, so a low 3.5%. Consensus is expecting it to rise to 3.6% in July with forecasts in a narrow range between 3.5% and 3.7%. Westpac and ANZ are expecting it to remain steady at 3.5% while CBA and NAB expect 3.6%.
  • The participation rate is broadly expected to hold at 66.8% with some projecting 66.7% and 66.9%.
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