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Small Uptick In February Inflation Momentum

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MNI's estimates indicate that seasonally adjusted CPIF ex-energy rose 0.14% M/M (vs 0.22% prior) in February. When annualised, this is a rate consistent with the 2% target, but annualised monthly changes are extremely volatile (see image below).

  • However, inflation momentum measured as the 3m/3m seasonally adjusted annualised rate rose to 2.09% (vs 1.67% prior).
  • Looking at the annualised M/M development of the SA CPI-ATE series (image below), momentum also rose over 3 and 6-month horizons.
  • An uptick in one month will probably not be enough to make the Riksbank reconsider its dovish pivot from the February meeting, but may ensure that communication at the March 27 meeting still acknowledges risks to the inflation outlook.
  • CPIF ex-energy inflation was seasonally adjusted using the X-13 methodology.

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MNI's estimates indicate that seasonally adjusted CPIF ex-energy rose 0.14% M/M (vs 0.22% prior) in February. When annualised, this is a rate consistent with the 2% target, but annualised monthly changes are extremely volatile (see image below).

  • However, inflation momentum measured as the 3m/3m seasonally adjusted annualised rate rose to 2.09% (vs 1.67% prior).
  • Looking at the annualised M/M development of the SA CPI-ATE series (image below), momentum also rose over 3 and 6-month horizons.
  • An uptick in one month will probably not be enough to make the Riksbank reconsider its dovish pivot from the February meeting, but may ensure that communication at the March 27 meeting still acknowledges risks to the inflation outlook.
  • CPIF ex-energy inflation was seasonally adjusted using the X-13 methodology.