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Snapshot: Rebound For Equities Sparks Strong MXN Reversal

LATAM
  • With US equity futures taking continuing to track higher in recent trade, initial weaker price action for LatAm currencies (that are open) has reversed course.
  • Despite earlier testing above the 20.00 mark, USDMXN is now trading lower again today and the sell-off continues to strengthen bearish technical conditions. We are currently testing 19.8193, the Jun 27 low and a break would open 19.4136, the May 30 low.
  • In similar vein, USDBRL traded up to 5.14 shortly after the open amid the firmer greenback, weaker risk sentiment and heavy price action across the commodity space. The renewed optimism in US equities has seen USDBRL grind lower, back towards the unchanged mark around 5.08.
  • Having traded below 5.1298, the Aug 1 low last week, the break highlights potential for a deeper retracement and has opened 5.0055, the 61.8% retracement of the May 30 - Jul 21 upleg. The 76.4% level is at 4.8853. On the upside, initial key resistance has been defined at 5.3157, the Aug 3 high.
  • With local holidays throughout the region on Monday price action from here is likely to be contained.
  • Looking ahead, second quarter real GDP in Colombia on Tuesday, and in Chile on Thursday.
  • Below gives key levels of LatAm markets in current trade:
    • USDMXN down 0.13% at 19.823
    • USDBRL up 0.15% at 5.0821
    • USDPEN down 0.3% at 3.8405
    • Bbg Dollar Index up 0.54% at 1267.31
    • USDCNH up 0.88% at 6.7969
    • S&P E-Mini Future up 10.5 points (0.25%) at 4291.5
    • WTI Crude Oil (front-month) down $3.39 (-3.68%) at $88.76
    • Gold is down $22.66 (-1.26%) at $1779.72
    • Copper Futures down 5.15 (-1.4%) at 361.75

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