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Snapshot: USD Reversal Prompts Reprieve For LatAm FX

LATAM
  • Weakness for the USD Index on Tuesday that was exacerbated by a trifecta of softer US data points has lent support to regional currencies in addition to a recovery across the commodity space. The Chilean peso (+2.44%) is the best performer, largely in reaction to last week’s steep depreciation as renewed political uncertainties circulated.
  • USDBRL has fallen 1.04% and as noted earlier, a bearish technical threat remains. The pair recently cleared support at 5.1298, the Aug 1 low. The break highlights potential for a deeper retracement and has opened 5.0055, 61.8% of the May 30 - Jul 21 upleg. On the upside, initial key resistance has been defined at 5.3157, Aug 3 high.
  • Argentina June Economic Activity Index is expected to rise 5.8% Y/y, down from 7.4% in May. The data is scheduled for release at the top of the hour. Focus then turns to tomorrow’s mid-month inflation prints for both Mexico and Brazil. While Mexican figures are still expected to increase, Brazil annual IPCA is expected to fall once more to 9.50% amid some analysts expecting that the BCB’s tightening cycle is now over.
  • Below gives key levels of LatAm markets in current trade:
    • USDMXN down 0.59% at 20.0217
    • USDBRL down 1.04% at 5.1027
    • USDCLP down 2.44% at 918.74
    • USDCOP down 0.9% at 4357.39
    • USDPEN down 0.5% at 3.8615
    • USDARS up 0.22% at 136.9488
    • WTI Crude Oil (front-month) up $3.49 (3.86%) at $93.87
    • Copper Futures up 3.75 (1.03%) at 368.90
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