SNP Falls Just Short Of Majority, But Pro-Indy Parties Retain Control

In the Scottish Parliament election on 6 May the separatist Scottish National Party (SNP) increased its seat total by one, lifting it to 64 in total, just one short of an overall majority.

• Falling so narrowly short of a majority will be felt as something of a loss for the SNP, but the two additional seats won by the pro-independence Greens means the total number of seats held by parties in favour of an independent Scotland rises to 72 out of 129, the highest number ever.
• As such the pressure on Westminster to hold another independence referendum will remain intense, although the failure of the SNP to secure an overall majority could hinder First Minister Nicola Sturgeon's ability to demand a referendum from Westminster as representing the 'will of the Scottish electorate'.

Chart 1. Scottish Parliament Election Result, Seats

Source: Scottish Government, MNI

• Not losing any seats will be seen as something of a success for the pro-Union Conservatives, given the deep unpopularity of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson in Scotland according to most opinion polls.