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Trend Needle Points South


Fed Terminal Up To 5.06% in June 2023


Heading North


Late Dec/Mar Tsy Roll Level Update

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BOE: So BOE in essence left QE on hold (with 2 members voting for an increase).
But reading between the lines the reason QE was left on hold was because we
aren't close to exhausting the GBP200bln already announced and there is still
great uncertainty around the recovery. The scenario used expects a decent
bounceback - in the BOE's words "GDP picks up relatively rapidly in 2020 H2 in
the scenario, although it takes some time to recover towards its previous path."
But there are warnings - particularly that voluntary social distancing may be
more persistent or companies could be more risk averse. There's not enough in
here to argue that QE won't be extended - most probably will continue to expect
it - but the question mark remains over timing and size. GBP50bln is the bare
minimum to keep QE going while the DMO's heavy GBP180bln issuance schedule which
is scheduled to continue to the end of July.

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