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SocGen Expect First SARB Cut in May, Still Like Short ZAR/MXN Trade

ZAR
  • SocGen note that uncertainty surrounding the general elections and the shaky fiscal position will likely keep the rand vulnerable in the short term. Beyond the short and medium term, they believe it will get a breather once the domestic noise about the national elections fades and the global environment turns more accommodative, with the dollar weakening in the coming months.
  • As a result, they expect the USD/ZAR cross to move downward under the 18.00 mark by year-end, but still also like their short ZAR/MXN trade idea.
  • SocGen say the latest positive developments in inflation will open the door for the SARB to start a cautious rate-cutting cycle at the May MPC meeting. They expect a 25bp cut in May to 8%, followed by two cumulative 50bp cuts in 2H24, thus bringing the policy rate to 7.50% by year-end.
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