### SOCGEN-Forex - Will central bank..........>

FOREX: ### SOCGEN-Forex - Will central bank meetings this week favor US and

Canadian dollars?

The dollar's fall looks a bit overdone compared to moves in bond yields and in

risk sentiment. The yen's appeal as a risk-off currency also looks overdone

given the nature of the latest geopolitical concerns.

BARCLAYS-On Wednesday night Chinese foreign exchange reserve data will be

released; we think recent USD weakness and slower capital outflows have led to

continued reserve stability. Reserves have edged higher over the past few months

after falling below USD3trn in January. CNY was one of the best performing Asian

currencies in August, but we still like it as a carry trade versus the dollar.

The next key event for the markets will be the ECB meeting later in the week.

The ECB Bloomberg survey for this week's meeting came out yesterday.

Expectations both on the QE and rate path/sequencing fronts are more dovish than

in the last survey published in July; ie there is a continuation of the trends

from before July.