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SocGen: Markets Price RBA Rate Cut Too Soon, Pay Dec ’24 RBA Vs. Receive 2y1y

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Societe Generale like “fading RBA cut pricing for 2024 but keep protection around tail risks via paying December ‘24 RBA vs receiving 2y1y.”

  • They argue that “RBA signalling continues to suggest that easing is unlikely this year. Risks from the U.S., reflected in the deep cuts priced into SOFR, plus a cyclical slowdown, are keeping the RBA rate cut pricing elevated.”
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Societe Generale like “fading RBA cut pricing for 2024 but keep protection around tail risks via paying December ‘24 RBA vs receiving 2y1y.”

  • They argue that “RBA signalling continues to suggest that easing is unlikely this year. Risks from the U.S., reflected in the deep cuts priced into SOFR, plus a cyclical slowdown, are keeping the RBA rate cut pricing elevated.”