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SocGen on NBH and HUF

HUNGARY
  • SocGen expects the MNB to deliver a 100bp hike in the base rate on Tuesday, 26 July, thus raising it to 10.75% from 9.75%.
  • In line with the MNB’s new strategy, adopted in June, of aligning the base rate and the 1w depo rate, SocGen also pencils in a 100bp increase to the latter on Thursday.
  • Inflation will very likely accelerate further, with August set to see a notable jump in energy prices.
  • SocGen expects another 100bp hike in August, three hikes in September, October and December, of 75bp respectively, and a final 50bp hike in December.
  • The MNB rates would thus hit 14.5% by year-end.
  • SocGen thinks the HUF will weaken gradually over the coming months as the wide current account deficit, the energy crunch in the CEE region and in Germany, and difficult relations with the EU (SocGen dos not expect the RRF money to be released for Hungary anytime soon) continue to weigh on the forint.
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