DALY SEES 'NO URGENCY TO ADJUST THE POLICY RATE'

MNI BRIEF: Fed’s Collins Sees Rate Cuts Later Than Had Thought

MNI BRIEF: China March M2 Slows More Than Expected

MNI BRIEF: China Tightens Stock Market Supervision

MNI BRIEF: China Mar Exports Jump On Demand; Imports Improve

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.0967 Fri; -4.87% Y/Y

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 617; OIL RIGS 506; GAS RIGS 109

March Home Sales Jumped At End Of Month

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

MNI BRIEF: Lawmakers Signal Tough Hearing For BOC's Macklem

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

SocGen See Copom Delivering 100bp Hikes In Aug and Sep

BRAZIL
  • Following the continued rise in inflationary pressure, SG have revised their year-end Selic rate forecast to 6.75% from the 5.50% published in their June quarterly outlook.
  • They now foresee 100bp rate hikes in each of next two Copom meetings followed by a 50bp hike in 4Q21.
  • The medium-term inflation outlook remains largely stable, so the frontloaded tightening this year now leads them to expect no rate hike in 2022 or 2023. The assess the risks to their forecasts are tilted to the upside in the near term and to the downside in the medium term.
  • 2021 growth forecast also raised from 4.7% to 5.2%, mostly due to upward revisions in the April activity data. Given the stronger growth-inflation mix, SG now expect a much lower fiscal deficit (-6.0% of GDP vs -6.9% projected earlier) and lower public debt (82.4% of GDP vs 86.9%) this year.
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.